On the Wane – Religion and Politics

Kurt's Religion and Politics

You’ve probably noticed, that people are getting more than a little tired of the COVID-19 “crisis.”

One need not have a high IQ to know that it shouldn’t matter how folks feel if there’s truly a serious situation such as a pandemic. It should be perfectly clear, that people need to take appropriate action to at least slow the spread of the virus.

That said, can I let you in on a little secret? To date, I’ve seen zero reason to consider the “pandemic” a serious threat to public health in most of the United States.

I’m pretty sure if the average person were to look at the data—assuming they were relatively good at statistical analysis—dispassionately, they would be in much the same place as am I.

I’ve pointed out a couple of facts in past articles, but a “refresh” is sometimes a called for thing.

To begin with, the number of deaths from COVID-19 in the top ten states for their occurrence, is presently listed by the Centers for Disease Control, as 126,929. This is definitely more than half the number of deaths in the country.

If one then looks at the number for the top twenty states, that number swells to 169,184.

Also per the CDC (who admittedly, is consistently around two weeks behind on their numbers), the total deaths in which the virus was a contributing factor amounts to 191,451. That means for the entire country outside of the top twenty states, there are just 22,267 deaths.

Considering the U. S. consists of fifty states, that means on average, for the remaining thirty states, the number of deaths in each state since the 1st of February, 2020 is 742 people.

Obviously, the number is higher for some states than for others in reality. That said, no state below the top twenty, has a number for that whole period of nearly eight months, in excess of 2,000 deaths.

If this is true, it seems to me, we must ask a serious question, “Are we truly locking down 30 states in the country for less than 2,000 deaths over an almost eight month period?”

Does it not seem absurd that I’m even asking this question? Can you honestly answer it with a serious response of, “Yes.”? On seeing the numbers, are you beginning to understand why so many are having a hard time taking the lock downs, mask wear, social distancing and general paranoia at all seriously?

I could make conjectures on why things are as they currently are, but the truth is, the reason is pretty well irrelevant, but for one consideration. That would be, “Is there really a need for the actions currently being taken throughout much of the country?”

I contend the answer is a simple one, it’s a definite, “No.”

Still not convinced? Let’s attack this from a different angle.

In the entire country, how many people have died of COVID-19 from the 1st of February, to the 1st of August?

That number was 158,962. That would be an average of around 26,500 persons dying a month.

What does the number look like since that time? It’s 32,390.

Considering we’re very near the end of the month, that number is likely to be most of the deaths for the two months in question. It’s not hard to divide the number in half to get a monthly average for those two months. Doing so gives a monthly average of 16,195, a full 10,000 less per month than the average for the previous six months.

Now consider that 24,882 of those deaths occurred in August. Granted, more will likely be accounted for September, still the current total for September amounts to just 7,508 deaths for the entire country.

It’s hard to imagine that the number will be substantially higher, considering we’re just 2 days from the end of the month. Granted, there’ll likely be upward adjustments of the two previous weeks.

Thing is, when you combine this information, with the fact that thirty states have yet to break 2,000 total fatalities in which the illness was even a factor. It becomes really more than a little bizarre that at least those states remain locked down.

I haven’t done the research, but I count it very likely that the twenty states having high numbers for the entirety of the “crisis,” have comparatively low ones today. That makes it so I’m prone to question the efficacy of any lock downs, mask wearing, or social distancing methods still in play.

I want to remind folks that in a previous piece I wrote titled More on COVID-19 Responses, I cited an article found on History.com. Part of the point of that article, was to indicate that a substantial suspected cause for the end of the Spanish Influenza pandemic, was essentially that the virus went through the whole population and that those who didn’t die from it, became immune.

It may seem a harsh reality, but after more than eight months, it’s quite likely we’re very nearly at that place with COVID-19.

I also assume that the number of deaths for Spanish ‘Flu dropped substantially near the end of the pandemic. I seriously doubt the numbers were kept sufficiently accurately to be certain that’s the case, so it’s likely hard to be sure.

The fact is, I’m pretty convinced by the time any vaccine or other treatment protocol is truly ready to be unleashed on the population at large, it will be largely unworthy of the time put into its creation and distribution.

This is particularly true when considering another fact. Looking at the CDCs data, the number of people under the age of 65 having died with COVID-19 as one of the causes for the entire pandemic, is still under 40,000.

This points to the idea that if we need to be protecting anybody, it’s largely the elderly.

It may seem to you, that we as a country, have not gone massively overboard in our response to COVID-19, when we do things like, arrest people for refusing to wear masks outdoors, who’re likely more than six feet away from others. From my vantage point though, I certainly don’t see that kind of reaction as reasonable. In fact, I don’t see far more tame responses as all that sensible either.

Thanks for reading, and may your time be good.

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